In my heart I'm still confident for a top 6 finish although now ten points behind, my hopes are on the wane.
Current betting exchange odds are 20/1 for promotion. That seemed attractive to me until I looked at the stats for the season so far.
The numbers are average to say the least and look all too familiar. The only positive is our performance against the teams in the top half of the league where we rank 5th.
However, this stat in itself is very encouraging. If we somehow get some consistency back and stop this post 90 minute madness where we have conceded 7 goals, I really believe we can still turn it round with Croft back and Chadwick hopefully returning soon.
18 points against teams in the top half of the league (rank 5th)
13 points against teams in the bottom half (rank 21)
20% (7) goals conceded in the 90th minute or later. Only 3 for. Only conceded 2 between 80 and 90 minutes and scored 4.
Home record ranked 12th in the league (10th at this stage last year)
Away record ranked 19th (18th last year)
We were 13th at this stage last year.
So far for December we are the worst performer in the league (6th in November . We were also worst in September).
We've scored 6 more goals than last year at the same stage.
As pointed out in the thread below, Earnshaw has scored 50% of the goals.
We've lost 14 points when we lost or drawn games which we've been winning. However, we've also gained 9 points from games we've won or drawn when losing.
I still think 20/1 for promotion is a tad on the big side but only just. A better bet might be to lay Norwich at odds of 4/6 when we play Southend on Tuesday. Local derby ... Southend just coming off a drubbing from the leaders ... Norwich poor record against bottom teams ... has draw written all over it. Let's hope not.
stats courtesy of football365.com
